Preliminary projections suggest that the 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security recipients could be around 2.4 percent.
While that may sound like welcome news amid signs of a cooling economy, the adjustment is still falling short for many retirees and individuals on fixed incomes.
This estimated increase is slightly below the 2.5 percent COLA beneficiaries received in 2025 and would mark the lowest adjustment since 2021’s modest 1.3 percent.
Why Seniors Might Get a Lower 2026 COLA
While inflation is not rising as rapidly as it did in recent years, that does not mean prices are dropping. Instead, it only means that they are not climbing as quickly. Everyday essentials like groceries, utilities, and medical care remain significantly more expensive than they were just a few years ago. For seniors, whose purchasing power has already eroded, a 2.4 percent COLA may feel like too little, too late.
The Social Security COLA is based on the third-quarter Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). This doesn’t always reflect the spending patterns of older adults. As a result, even when inflation cools, the adjustment may not keep pace with the actual costs seniors face—especially in healthcare and housing.
Technically, this number would still break records. That’s because it would mark the first time in nearly 20 years that COLAs were above 2 percent for over 5 years. But this metric is much less impressive when we realize how much purchasing power Social Security has lost because of inflation and low COLAs.
We will know the official COLA in October 2025, but early estimates like this one are a reminder: a slowing inflation rate does not always equal financial relief—especially when prices are already historically high.
Will you help us raise this COLA? Sign our petition to make your voice heard. Together, we can change the 2026 COLA and the future of retirement.
